US-Iran conflict hands China's Xi upper hand ahead of Trump meeting: Experts
US-Iran conflict hands China's Xi upper hand ahead of Trump meeting: Experts
SELINA WANGWed, March 25, 2026 at 11:54 PM UTC
0
Chinese President Xi Jinping has been silent on the war between the U.S. and Israel against Iran, even after the White House postponed an anticipated trip by President Donald Trump to China.
Instead, Xi has been watching from the sidelines, and experts tell ABC News that's exactly where Beijing wants to be ahead of his anticipated meeting with Trump in May.
The Iran war is giving Beijing some significant long-term benefits, Jon Czin, a fellow at the Brookings Institution, told ABC News.
Andrew Caballero-Reynolds/AFP via Getty Images - PHOTO: President Donald Trump and China's President Xi Jinping leave after their talks at the Gimhae Air Base, in Busan, October 30, 2025.
U.S. military assets are being pulled away from the Indo-Pacific, Trump's attention is consumed elsewhere, and China gets to walk into a high-stakes summit just weeks from now as a relative bright spot in an otherwise chaotic foreign policy landscape according to Czin.
Iran live updates
"We're moving a lot of assets away from the Indo-Pacific theater, and most importantly for Beijing, they are not in the 'eye of Sauron' right now," Czin, former director for China at the National Security Council said, making a "Lord of the Rings" reference to the Dark Lord's omniscient gaze.
"What Beijing really wants is time and space to focus on strengthening themselves -- and the fact that the U.S. is preoccupied with the Middle East gives them that," he added.
Despite Trump publicly calling on Beijing to help reopen the Strait of Hormuz, China has stayed on the sidelines.
The calculus is straightforward, according to experts, as some of Beijing's ships have been able to transit the strait since Iran closed it. It has built up its own strategic oil reserves, and its massive investments in green energy give it a cushion. Thus there's little upside for China to get involved.
Beijing is also filing away something potentially more consequential: a detailed look at how the U.S. military actually operates in a live war, Czin said. China is studying the conflict closely, drawing lessons directly applicable to Taiwan war-gaming, according to Czin.
Reuters - PHOTO: Cargo ships in the Gulf, near the Strait of Hormuz, as seen from northern Ras al-Khaimah, near the border with Oman's Musandam governance in United Arab Emirates, March 11, 2026.
"This just gives them more things to consider and more ways to expand their portfolio of options for thinking about Taiwan," he said, adding that this is "the next part of the syllabus," following four years of watching U.S. involvement in Ukraine.
But Beijing's confidence didn't start with Iran.
Advertisement
Even before the war, Chinese officials believed they were entering 2026 holding more leverage than Washington recognized, Czin said.
The Supreme Court could say Trump's tariffs are illegal. What happens then?
They were watching what the "frailties" in U.S. economic data -- weakness in the labor market, affordability concerns -- and concluded that would "diminish Trump's appetite for another round of escalation," he noted.
Then there's the rare earth card, as Beijing announced further export controls on critical minerals shortly before Trump's last meeting with Xi, and faced no retribution from Washington, according to experts such as Jude Blanchette, the distinguished Tang Chair in China Research and Director of China Research Center for the research group Rand.
"Beijing's rare earth leverage has forced the Trump administration to recognize that this is just a different China from the first Trump administration," he told ABC News. "Now they can really hit back in a way that they couldn't, or didn't, before."
Mark Schiefelbein/AP - PHOTO: President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping meet at Gimhae International Airport in Busan, South Korea, Oct. 30, 2025.
That calculation has only been reinforced by the Supreme Court's decision to strike down Trump's broad emergency tariffs, which curtailed one of his most powerful pressure tools heading into the summit.
The tariffs have soured relations between the U.S. and China since Trump took office.
The planned March 31 to April 2 summit between Trump and Xi, which would have marked the first in person meeting between the leaders since the Supreme Court decision, was pushed back by six weeks because of the Iran war, according to White House officials.
Trump threatens 100% tariff on Canada if it makes a deal with China
Experts said during the meeting Xi is likely looking for a prolongation of the trade truce, a rollback of export controls on advanced technology including AI semiconductors, and less scrutiny of Chinese investment in the U.S.
But Czin contended the most important thing Beijing wants is simpler than any specific deliverable -- to get through the summit without conceding anything of substance, buy more time, and keep strengthening its position.
"If they're able to get off the hook by just having a very high-profile ceremonial visit," he said. "That's a win for Beijing."
Source: “AOL Money”
